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| Günther Oettinger, EU commissioner for energy (left) and Jarosław Niewierowicz (source: enmin.lt) |
The direct cause for which the Prime Minister Butkevičius has requested dismissal of Niewierowicz was his appointment of Renata Cytacka as Deputy Minister. The head of government announced that the Minister of Energy informed him that LLRA insisted on appointment of Cytacka. Butkevičius already announced that in the case of the appointment of representative of the LLRA, he will ask for dismissal of Niewierowicz. Renata Cytacka previously served as Deputy Minister in the Ministry of Energy to the resignation of the government on July 11 (the government submitted his resignation to President Dalia Grybauskaitė in connection with the taking oath by her for another term).
Premier Butkevičius sought to deprive Renata Cytacka from the position of Deputy Minister of Energy, pointing out her low competence. Cytacka was also criticized for her political occurrence. In January 2014 in a public statement she accused Dalia Grybauskaitė of lying. According to Cytacka the president spoke untruth in her speech at the European Parliament, in which she alleged that there were no reports of international organizations, which criticised Lithuania for the situation of national minorities. Then Jarosław Niewierowicz avert dispute with Prime Minister Butkevičius declaring that Cytacka performed as an individual, not a government official.
Renata Cytacka is also an active member of the Polish community in Vilnius region. Before becoming the Deputy Minister she worked for several years as a secretary of the self-government of Vilnius District, which is governed by the Electoral Action of Poles in Lithuania. Cytacka is also active in the Polish Schools in Lithuania Parents' Forum, an organization which organized protests against the new educational law of 2011, that introduced significant changes in national minority schools. Lithuanian media focused attention also on that Cytacka already as Deputy Minister did not hang the Lithuanian flag on her house during Lithuanian national holidays.
Jarosław Niewierowicz on the other hand, was widely praised for the work as the minister. Highly rated are his professional competence and experience (he is an economist, graduated from the Warsaw School of Economics, in 2006-2008 he was Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs, and from 2008 to 2012 led the company LitPolLink responsible for the creation of the Polish-Lithuanian power bridge), also by President Dalia Grybauskaitė. Projects that the Minister of Energy considered a priority also had the support of the head of state: the construction of new nuclear power plant and LNG terminal in Klaipėda or gas and electricity connections with Poland. Jaroslaw Niewierowicz was also responsible for conducting negotiations with Gasprom on lowering gas prices.
After the decision of the president to dismiss Niewierowicz Electoral Action of Poles in Lithuania issued a statement in which it said that the matter of resignation of the minister is not a foregone conclusion. LLRA stressed that it is considered to be a reliable and credible coalition partner, and its representatives in the government are persons of high competence. As interested in the dismissal of its representatives LLRA pointed a circle associated with the opposition Fatherland Union. On the same day, one of the deputies of LLRA, Vice-Chairman of Seimas Jarosław Narkiewicz said that party will again recommend Niewierowic as minister. Premier Butkevičius announced that he will not accept this candidacy. The question of further participation of LLRA in the coalition is to be considered at a meeting of the political council of the ruling coalition scheduled for August 25.
At the moment, further developments are the subject of speculation. It seems certain that the Electoral Action of Poles in Lithuania do not give up its support for Niewierowicz's and Cytacka's candidacies. At the same time keeping them on their positions would be a proof of inconsistency of Prime Minister Butkevičius. In case of rejection of nominations LLRA is likely to leave the coalition. It should be recalled that the center-left coalition of the Social Democrats, the Labour Party and the Order and Justice has a secure majority in parliament without the participation of the LLRA.
The departure from the government may also benefit LLRA. This may have important implications for the forthcoming local elections (in which for the first time mayors will be elected by universal suffrage, LLRA probably will nominate its own candidate for mayor of Vilnius). Spectacular exit from the coalition can help enhance the image of LLRA as a party fighting for Polish affairs and relentless in defense of their representatives. The possibility of such development is stressed by the fact that still none of the demands of the Polish minority has found a solution in Seimas of current term. If case of leaving the coalition, LLRA will probably emphasize that, despite the best efforts of their own, the coalition did nothing to improve the situation of Poles in Lithuania.
For its own good LLRA is ready to sacrifice Niewierowicz. He is not a member of the party, and is regarded as a specialist rather than politics. Also he is not closely associated with the circle of Waldemar Tomaszewski, which got currently the strongest influence in the LLRA. After the departure from the position of the Minister Niewierowicz has a chance to successfully return to non-political activity. It seems that for LLRA the mor important person is Renata Cytacka, associated - as Waldemar Tomaszewski - with the Vilnius District, and for many years engaged in the activities of the party and other Polish organizations.
Another possible option is that Niewierowicz would keep the position even when the LLRA leave the government as nonpartisan minister. This would be, however, again a proof of inconsistency of Prime Minister, as he announced earlier that he will not accept this candidature. Interested in such a solution could be president, because on the one hand Niewierowicz would ensure further implementation of priority energy projects, and on the other hand it could weaken the position of Prime Minister Butkevičius. It is doubtful, however, that after the departure of LLRA from the government Niewierowicz would decided to be involved in creation of another Polish party alternative to the LLRA. He does not have adequate political backing, and even if he could decide to do it, such a project is doomed to failure.
The situation is complicated by the fact that interest in taking up the Ministry of Energy in case of leaving the coalition by LLRA expressed the Labour Party. President Grybauskaitė probably will want to avoid this at all costs, as she has for long time had critical attitude to this party, and even accused it of acting in favor of Russia. Given that energy issues are one of the priorities of her presidency and the current political situation in the region, Dalia Grybauskaitė will by any means try to block takeover the Ministry of Energy by the Labour Party. In extreme case, it may end up leaving the government also by this party. This opens the way for a new coalition and perhaps a new government formed by Social Democrats and the opposition Conservatives and Liberals. Unofficially, President Dalia Grybauskaitė is in favor of such solution.
Questions about the fate of the LLRA in government and whether Jarosław Niewierowicz and Renata Cytacka keep their positions remain open. One can not exclude any option, although the most likely seems to be the rejection of Niewierowicz's candidature and LLRA leaving the coalition. Assessment of the situation is more difficult given that the motivations and intentions of the main participants in the dispute remain unclear. Solutions should be expected in the next week after a meeting of the political council of the ruling coalition.
The material has been previously published here (in Polish).
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